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Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 1:38 pm
by nekros
I'm not really into currency trading, but I was wondering about a differential equations based method of predicting. Would it be possible, and would it be practical?

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 6:58 pm
by AndrewAPrice
Forex release a free .Net web-service/API (registration required for a unique key), so you can easily set up a simulator and try your idea out. There are also a lot of (mostly commercial and expensive) programs that let you use your own trading logic.

I once stumbled on a forum earlier this year made up of a community of wannabe-rich-quick'ers, mathematicians, and professional traders that were trying everything (including large scale neural network simulation). IRC the simplest methods were the ones that had the most return.

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:26 pm
by nekros
Yeah, the idea is not to make a one and only solution for predicting, but to find something that takes into account a limited number of variables.

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:47 pm
by monkeykoder
How familiar are you with differential equations?

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 8:39 pm
by nekros
Well with mathematics in general, I started reading calculus books when I was 12.

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 9:07 pm
by monkeykoder
Well if you've read a good DE book then you should have a good idea of how to use differential equations in modeling. If you're going for modeling with more than 2 variables.

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 9:58 pm
by nekros
Yes I have a good book. The only real weak area for me is partial differentials as I don't have my desired level of information available to me.

Off topic: I remember in 6th grade I got pissed off because I regarded their method of "prediction" for the path of a hurricane as too simple. I completely confused everybody with my logic. Ahh the fun of geekhood!

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 10:14 pm
by monkeykoder
I happen to have two copies of Kreyzig's Advanced Engineering Mathematics... PDEs are featured...

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Thu Dec 17, 2009 2:31 am
by Cognition
It's possible, that said I doubt forex would be the best place to start. Trying to value an entire nation's economy relative to another one isn't an easy process. MessiahAndrw had it right too, usually using a simple model to screen tends to be much more effective. Another thing to keep in mind is that data services for market information usually aren't free and often are not cheap. Even if you had a perfect model many of the measurements would be entirely subjective in nature. If you're serious about it though I'd suggest reading up on macroeconomics and reviewing other investment options first. Grab a copy of the Intelligent Investor and read through it too. There's a lot of good simulators out there for stocks/options as well should you choose to go that route.

Re: Differential Equations and Forex

Posted: Thu Dec 17, 2009 9:52 am
by monkeykoder
I think it sounds like an interesting project.