You're absolutely right, and that's exactly what I said The best estimates for a given project are always based on historical data from the same organization that's estimating the project. Typically the organization has some kind of continuity in terms of the types of projects, languages used, etc. I work for a software development services company (i.e. -- we develop software for other software companies), so you'd think we'd be working on completely different projects all the time. While there is a certain amount of variety, there is also a lot of continuity -- the Mac experts typically do Mac porting work, the database experts (like me) do database-related work, etc.Solar wrote:As long as you keep in mind that a F-22 isn't the same thing as a DC-3. And that's where the problem is: Line count is not comparable between projects unless it's the same team working in the same general business area on a problem of comparative complexity under comparable conditions.
It sounds that way when reading about it. A lot of the books on the subject are very dry and horribly written (e.g. -- the book on COCOMO II... yuck). That's why I recommend Rapid Development -- it's written in a much more accessible style.I know quite something about software estimation, and all I've read so far makes me uneasy. I keep getting the feeling all these "metrices" are basically for people who don't understand the job (i.e., PHB types).
FWIW, I think your cynicism in estimation is misplaced, even though you're not alone in feeling that way. I've helped to design a relatively lightweight estimation process for a few of my company's teams, and it's worked remarkably well over the past few years. As I said, historical data is the key to making it work. We did our first few estimates using COCOMO II, and they were ok (I think maybe 15-20% too low), but the actuals we recorded from those projects gave us a baseline for subsequent estimates, which became more and more accurate as we used our historical data to calibrate our estimation tool.
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