kzinti wrote:Everyone agrees things will change. But nobody agrees what the changes will be and what it is going to look like.
I guess, that is because change is the one constant in the universe. Everything is always changing. Sometimes radically so, but I wouldn't bet on it. So far, capitalism is the only economic system that could be shown to work. I, for one, don't think major economic changes will be happening as a result of this. Although some politicians now see value in not outsourcing important industries to China, talk is always cheap, and talk during a crisis doubly so. They also made grand pronouncements about putting the banks on a leach after 2008, and look what happened there: Nothing. Tons of state money burnt up in the furnaces of the banks, and very little of consequence happened.
The food is never eaten as hot as it is cooked.
bzt wrote:If this includes 1929 (and I think it does), then chances are good that we might also facing WWIII, and means that the total collapse of the global economy is on the table as well.
The second world war was not just a consequence of the Great Depression. Lots of other factors were in there, too. Note that the world at large was recovering from the Depression by the time Hitler was elected, never mind when he actually went to war. And now we have large international trade networks that mean that the countries depend on each other so much that war would be economic suicide.
kzinti wrote:The world economic systems are unsustainable. It was just a matter of time before everything exploded.
Possibly. Well, here's hoping the growth economy does not come to an end. Because while a zero-sum economy is sustainable, it is not very peaceful. Zero-sum economy is what we had in the middle ages, and it meant that everyone was always fighting everyone else for more land.
In the middle ages, economy was largely agriculture, and the only way to get more resources doing agriculture is to get more land. So if you want to have a better life tomorrow than you have today (or you want your children to have a better life than you), you have to take away someone else's land. And even if you do not think so selfishly, all of your neighbors are faced with the same problem, and at least some of them will think so. So you are always either at war or preparing for one. But in a growth economy, that is no longer true. In a growth economy, if I can get you to make more money, and give part of that money to me, I make more money all the same. I'm invested in making your life better for selfish reasons. And that is the power of capitalism: Turning selfishness into a power for peace and prosperity. And human beings, by and large, are selfish. I mean, some only care for themselves, some care for their families, and some even care for their "tribe" however you want to define that (city, region, country, ...), but there is usually an in-group preference.
Of course, prolonged growth economy requires a purging every now and again... oh boy, here we go again.
