Discussions on more advanced topics such as monolithic vs micro-kernels, transactional memory models, and paging vs segmentation should go here. Use this forum to expand and improve the wiki!
berkus wrote:The desktop PCs are largely irrelevant nowadays (in volumes) and for the rest of the herd - ARM will overtake by 2013.
There are currently no ARM based CPUs in top500 list of Supercomputers. And i don't think that will change soon. The same is on the server market.
ARM specialises in low-power processors and systems-on-chip. Supercomputers are completely outside its design goal. Server-wise, there is currently demand for low power servers (think Facebook Chat that just runs an erlang program bouncing messages around - not resource heavy, just requiring low latency) - a server farm's main cost is power to run it (and the air conditioning to cool it).
The expanding market is in mobile devices (phones, tablets) and embedded devices, which is where ARM is firmly based. The PC market is saturated and is not growing. The only people who need new PCs are those who spill beer on their laptop or gamers.
ARM specialises in low-power processors and systems-on-chip. Supercomputers are completely outside its design goal. Server-wise, there is currently demand for low power servers (think Facebook Chat that just runs an erlang program bouncing messages around - not resource heavy, just requiring low latency) - a server farm's main cost is power to run it (and the air conditioning to cool it).
Cost is not the only concern. Basically it depends on the need. Some customers require reliability above everything else , up times must be measured in decades than in years and they are willing to pay any amount of $$$ for that. Stock exchanges , Banks etc belong to this category.
ARM specialises in low-power processors and systems-on-chip. Supercomputers are completely outside its design goal. Server-wise, there is currently demand for low power servers (think Facebook Chat that just runs an erlang program bouncing messages around - not resource heavy, just requiring low latency) - a server farm's main cost is power to run it (and the air conditioning to cool it).
Cost is not the only concern. Basically it depends on the need. Some customers require reliability above everything else , up times must be measured in decades than in years and they are willing to pay any amount of $$$ for that. Stock exchanges , Banks etc belong to this category.
--Thomas
My statement was not meant to be all-encompassing. I said "there is demand for", not "all servers require this above all else". Database servers need huge amounts of processing power that ARM isn't able to provide and won't in the near future.
There are however a load of servers that simply run memcached or httpd. These aren't load-intensive.
JamesM wrote:The only people who need new PCs are those who spill beer on their laptop or gamers.
Or run statistics programs or other calculation expensive programs. Some years ago they said there will be never an program the needs power beyond 386. But damn i can't run Caligari Truespace on 386. Imagine 3D Modeller with realtime preview, and some 1.000.000+ vertex objects with fur and radiosity turned on. Now imagine an CAD program with realtime airflow calculation while build the model. Maybe it is an model of an trombone you could use airflow calculation to generate sounds. Cloth designer could make models on PC and simulate them so they could more easily make changes or compare design alternatives. Oh and then there are many programs where you have to wait, when PCs are already fast enough why i have to wait?
JamesM wrote:The only people who need new PCs are those who spill beer on their laptop or gamers.
Or run statistics programs or other calculation expensive programs. Some years ago they said there will be never an program the needs power beyond 386. But damn i can't run Caligari Truespace on 386. Imagine 3D Modeller with realtime preview, and some 1.000.000+ vertex objects with fur and radiosity turned on. Now imagine an CAD program with realtime airflow calculation while build the model. Maybe it is an model of an trombone you could use airflow calculation to generate sounds. Cloth designer could make models on PC and simulate them so they could more easily make changes or compare design alternatives. Oh and then there are many programs where you have to wait, when PCs are already fast enough why i have to wait?
But power users such as universities, researchers etc are *not* a large market when taken as a percentage of the total market that involves "ordinary" users too. Granted, the profit margins are higher on such computers, but the target market is just not *expanding*, and expansion is the interesting part with a saturated market, not total market size.
berkus wrote:Afaik, we are speaking about volumes. Compare number of supercomputers with number of ARM phones (not counting the rest of ARM machinery out there).
But means that any to CPU future development? When i reduce transistor size i could build smaller chips or more transistors on one chip. So maybe i reduce the size of my already existing CPUs and put them into in an mobile device and develop at the same a new desktop processor. This new desktop CPU is the mobile CPU from tomorrow. Sure you will add some handy MPEG decoding circuits, graphic adapter and other stuff to the chip to save additional power. But i espect nothing revolutionary from mobile market.
berkus wrote:Afaik, we are speaking about volumes. Compare number of supercomputers with number of ARM phones (not counting the rest of ARM machinery out there).
But means that any to CPU future development? When i reduce transistor size i could build smaller chips or more transistors on one chip. So maybe i reduce the size of my already existing CPUs and put them into in an mobile device and develop at the same a new desktop processor. This new desktop CPU is the mobile CPU from tomorrow. Sure you will add some handy MPEG decoding circuits, graphic adapter and other stuff to the chip to save additional power. But i espect nothing revolutionary from mobile market.
The die size is irrelevant; most of what embedded devices need to do is do what they do with low power consumption.
ARM is a slap in the face to the CPU wars of the 80's in a way. Considering its a "32-bit derivative" of the 65C02 after the BBC Micro computer needed a boost and ARM couldn't find anything they felt suited their next computer with the then current market offerings.
Still 1.388 billion cellphones were sold last year, Intel is working towards smaller versions of the Atom to fit in cell phones now, they also produced their own ARM based chips for a few years (XScale). So I doubt they don't know what to do, they are just trying to fit too much into a small package as compared to ARM and other microcontroller based CPU's I personally believe.
Will 128 bit cpus ever be developed? Well, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they already have been, but I don't really see any need for them or for me to investigate further.
Will the general architecture of today's mainstream cpus change significantly any time soon? Probably not, though a neat idea does pop up from time to time, one of which I especially liked.
Yes, it's back from 2006 and I haven't heard anything about it since.
then of course there's quantum computing, which I do believe recently have taken a "quantum" leap forward without people noticing and before long I do believe that they may actually be useful, however, quantum computers don't really compare. I very much doubt that you're ever going to play counterstrike on a quantum computer.
Zacariaz wrote:Will 128 bit cpus ever be developed? Well, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they already have been, but I don't really see any need for them or for me to investigate further.
Umm, 128 bit CPU-s. Are being developed at this point. AMD specifically, Windows 8 - 128 bit supported, AMD CPU-s - x8 Bulldozer and Bobcat (Bulldozer is about to be released) Bulldozer is 64 bit but Bobcat is developed as 128 bit. The new motherboard AM3+ is being developed as 128 bit.
There is no doubt that 128 bit's will be released.
