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64bit x86 cpu's are developping pretty fast... how long will it take 32 bit cpu's to be replaced by their 64bit counterparts on our desktops? 1 year, 2? more?

I don't know how long it will take before they replace your 32 bit CPU, but I think the 32bit CPU is here to stay.

Think about it. 16bit CPUs made for a severe limitation that was really felt by users and developers alike, and 32bit CPUs were a significant improvement.

But... how often do you hit the limit of the 32bit CPU on your desktop? In theory, you could address 4 GByte of RAM, but most motherboards don't even allow that much. Not because of address space limits, but because of the electronic issues raised by SDRAM technology.

Adressing files > 2/4 GByte RAM is an issue of the file system, and mostly unrelated to the address width of the CPU.

And how often do you hit the limits of 32 bit integer math?

The 64bit CPUs solve problems in the server range. For the desktop, the 32bit CPU doesn't pose a problem, and so I don't see the 64bits replacing them. I think they will augment them, since surely geeks, power users etc. will purchase 64bit systems for their geek value or the odd application where the new CPUs actually solve a problem.

We will see a market with 32bits in the low segment (SOHO) and 64bit in the high segment (pro workstations, servers) - unless Microsoft leverages their market share once again and stop supporting 32bit systems.

Hmm... they'd be morons for sacking 32 bit tech for the sake of 64 bit. As long as one gets more bang for the buck with 32 bit, 32 bit systems will remain. They aren't expensive, they are tested and proven, and, to say it in metaphors, even the smallest flea at the end of Fire land owns a PC system - which runs with a 32 bit cpu.

I for one have the following opinion: it is not only the cpu which makes a system running fluently: it is the cooperation of the many workhorses be it software be it hardware built into a computer which makes the system fast. The cpu for itself is usually fast enough - but the mainboard among other reasons can be a brake.

The one thing that made the PC succeed where integrated systems like Amiga failed - interchangeability of components - also is it's biggest drawback.

But the market has shown that, in desktop land, integrated systems cannot survive. You just cannot keep up with the breakneck speed of specialized GPU / sound chip / southbridge / northbridge manufacturers... :-[ I guess we have to live with it.

i agree with Solar ... there are 64 bits CPU from a long time ago (mainly ultra Sparc and things alike), but we're still using low-price 32 bits processors ... As a developer, the main thing i prefer in the 64 bits architecture is the fact is has more generic registers ... period.

I don't think we have to fear the "abandon of 32 bits hardware" like what happened with Solar's beloved Amiga and my beloved C64 for the following reasons:
- i don't think it will be practical to make embedded (i mean laptop version) of 64 bits chips before years
- most of your related hardware (graphic cards, network cards, etc.) are in a PCI bus, which is not bound to x86, but exist on other platforms and is already a 64 bits technology
- there are clone manufacturers who can go on making 32 bits chips/motherboard even if the Grand Solders stop doing it.
- Ever see microsoft *leaving* a market ?

Pype.Clicker wrote: - i don't think it will be practical to make embedded (i mean laptop version) of 64 bits chips before years

*points to ad for 64-bit Athlon laptop for only 1599 euros*

- most of your related hardware (graphic cards, network cards, etc.) are in a PCI bus, which is not bound to x86, but exist on other platforms and is already a 64 bits technology

change that to "a technology with a 64-bit extension". ISA was 8 bit, nobody doubts that. Still, 16 and 32-bit extensions exist, just that the 32-bit ones never came on make people claim it only could do 16-bit. PCI usually (not always) only supports 32-bit registers for page copies, so I would call it a 32-bit tech.

I'm less concerned about a transition from 32 bits to 64 bits than I am with the question, how much further can Intel and AMD extend the x86 architecture before it has to be dropped? Mind you, I want to see the back of it, and have for years; it is a hideous design, by just about everyone's agreement, and the fact that it became the most common platform has been a disaster for the industry. Had a more sensible design gained ascendancy instead - be it 680x0, Alpha, PPC, SPARC, or my personal favorite, ARM - the purchase price and price of operation would both be much lower. However, the x86 has gained such momentum that it will only be unseated either when it hits an insuperable design wall, or is faced with some new, radically superior competiing technology. The former has already occurred, but been bypassed; since the Pentium II (and K6), the CPUs no longer run x86 instructions directly, but effectively run them in hardware emulation (mind you, this is not just a matter of microinstruction decoding; the programs are actually simulated on hardware that is quite unlike that which it appears to be, IIUC). The latter would almost certainly be co-opted, and used as just an improved x86 emulator. Until there is some compelling reason to drop the x86 system - some 'killer app' for the new hardware - we will be stuck with it indefinitely.

Perhaps, though, there is a way out. As Pype points out, the PCI bus system is not specific to the x86, and PCI cards are at least supposed to work with all PCI systems. The OpenPPC project has already shown that a PowerPC system can be designed to work with standard power supplies and case form factors; SPARC, being a completely open-source architecture, could also be so adapted if a manufacturer was willing to develop a stock version of it. Further, a because of their higher overall performance, a PowerPC or a SPARC can approximately emulate an x86 at an equivalent clock speed (that is to say, one of those CPUs running at 500MHz can emulate a 500Mhz x86, one running at 1.2GHz can emulate a 1.2GHz x86, etc.). Finally, Linux software is largely hardware-independent, even for graphics; since there are version of Linux for both of those processors (and many others besides), the vast majority of Linux software need only be recompiled (and perhaps tweaked a bit) to run natively on such a system. Even programs which are system specific (games and low-level utilities, primarily) could be ported with relative ease, or run in emulation. From the user's perspective, it wouldn't matter what hardware was inside the box.

Mind you, even for a 'stock' PowerPC or SPARC system, the price will be higher than a similar x86; however, the advantages are such that if a manufacturer were to develop them, the Linux community would be quick to adopt them, especially for servers, which would eventually drive the prices down as larger quantities are produced.

As a parting shot, and a weak attempt to stay on topic for the forum, I would add that PPC and SPARC are vastly simpler for an OS designer to work with.

wow. an unexpected move from Sauron ... Windows XP 64 is offered for free for one year for those who dare (can afford ?) buying a 64bits CPU ...

Pype.Clicker wrote: wow. an unexpected move from Sauron ...

A thought that's been going around my head for some time, looking for some place to drop it, made itself be heard when Pype uttered the word "Sauron"... This is heavily OT, so you might want to skip it.

<enter mode="philosophical">

Stories abound about a great big evil plotting to subvert the world. Hundreds of books and movies, before Tolkien and after. And in all these stories, there are brave men (and women) stepping forth to resist that evil, consequences be damned, in struggles of epic proportions, finally overcoming the evil in glorious victory.

Looking at the world today, I see the great evil everywhere, everyday. Greed, corruption, lack of respect, egoism. And it turns out that there is no Sauron behind it, no Big Olde One about to wake in Ry'leh, no demon from hell... just the weakness of mankind itself.

People starve, die in wars, die from lack of medication they cannot afford. And even those "better off" in the western nations live in fear of losing their jobs, their savings put aside for retirement, and work their backsides off in a treadmill environment where only the greedy, amoral "senior managers" reap in the big bucks. All the while we're killing this planet, poison the waters and the air, burning the forests and fishing the oceans empty.

"That's not the way our society functions", says Cpt. Jean-Luc Pickard - "we're just working for fullfillment."

No shining heroes there, just the "left-wing eco-terrorists", the "commies", the "freaks". They tell us to abstain from many benefits we came to like, from some of the lifestyle we enjoy, from the benefits we were able to reap by working in well-payed economies - so that all people around the world could live equal, in peace, and sustainable for generations to come.

And even if those we look down upon should "win", making the world into a better, healthier, wealthier place - the evil would be still there: the greed, the drive to possess more than your neighbour (or as much as you perceive him to possess, which turns out to be the same thing). The agression against things you don't understand.

Those are the days when I wish there were a Sauron, a Satan, a Cthullhu in this world responsible for all this evil, so we could pick up arms against his dark hordes.

But it's just mankind itself that's the evil. How do you fight yourself?

</end mode>

Sorry. That was festering, and I had to get it off. Sorry for being so OT. Ignore it, or let it impress you to change your views.

:'(

Thou shalt be careful with thee wishes, for they become true if you keep them close to your heart and don't talk about 'em.

You say, biggest enemy of mankind is mankind itself.

I counterspeak: biggest enemy of mankind is this fucking stupidity of folks not to think for themselves but let other's do the brainwork for 'em.

Greed, egoism, corruption and so forth: we know it happens, we know that there are egoists. Let them do what they think is right, for you canna change it. Take it, accept it and stroll your *own* paths of elucidation. You just canna expect Joe average to find such paths for he isn't able to see them.

Respect is something to be earned rather than to be expected *per se*.

Now, one last word ere I think this turns into a fucking lament: The World is full of beauty. The whispering of the wind grabbing in the trees summits, rustling with juicy, green loafs full of life is what I consider something to be enjoyed. Or take a look at the sky at sunset, let your eyes see the glitter of dew upon the peaks of grass. watch the midges golden glowing wings in the rays of the dawining sun, whilst they are dancing their rhymes above dark green bushes. And for gods sake, just have fun.

There is too much beauty in this world to grieve about missed chances, rich neigbours and greedy presidents. Learn about the Lore of Stoa. Take the essence of Zen and Buddhism and
... don't panic.

One thing about 'starving' people: If you drive by tube and such a slug(they 're called 'bum') is coming along begging for mo'money - and is stinking like devils butt with an odeur of alcohol - I beg your pardon, but I don't have much pity. Every one can let go and fall down. That's the easy way. To weep about the past and not to stand up again.

Hm, and once again, I recognize a certain writers gift in your sentences. *gg* Have you by any chance attended some writers workshop? I've never done so, so my writing is lousy and sometimes obsolete.

stay safe

ps: @pype: hmmm ... and the fellowship of the code is tight upon his butt - just look at lindows vs microsoft. Hehe, in german, this sounds like this: 'winzigweich' *bg*

beyond infinity wrote: Let them do what they think is right, for you canna change it.

That is the very point where I ask myself: Isn't that what those tales talk about - the grey masses that see the evil but just feel too tired / preoccupied / lazy to do something about it? I know, the alternative would be a call to lay fire to the barricades... :-/

Respect is something to be earned rather than to be expected *per se*.

I also meant the respect for the unknown person. Things I observed in the last 24 hours:

No respect payed to the guy in the other car - so he can't go faster than 120 km/h, is that grounds to deny him the right to overtake the truck on the highway only because you could go even faster? Or shouldn't you pay respect and let him overtake, taking his time, then give a friendly wave and be on your way?

No respect payed to the construction worker standing on the street trying to organize the traffic around a maneuvering truck in a corner - so he's holding you up, is that grounds to assume you can go around the corner? Or shouldn't you pay respect to him perhaps seeing things you don't, and wait until the situation is cleared? (Smarta**es from both sides thought they could just ignore him, ending up in queues in both directions and the truck being unable to move - no-one went anywhere for about half an hour.)

No respect payed to those responsible running the commuter trains - so they're late today, is that grounds to assume they're not doing as best as they can? Or shouldn't you pay respect, smile and know that it's as stressful for them as it is for you?

No respect payed to the one stepping back from the tram's doors in the station so others can debarge - is that grounds to deny him a seating by elbowing your way inside even before the last one got out? Or shouldn't you step aside too, to make the whole thing easy and enjoyable for all involved? (After all, I was there first, I was trying to be friendly, and the result was I was standing for the better part of an hour because I gave those tie-wearing a**h**** a chance...)

The World is full of beauty.

And I sometimes think I have the curse of Raistlin. (For those not having read Dragon Lance, Raistlin is a mage cursed to see decay in even the greatest beauty.)

I'll spare you the details, but every look at nature is spoiled for me by being aware of the greenhouse effect that made the hottest ten summers of 120 years of temperature tracking occur after 1990, and US' defiance for the Kyoto protocol; of two third's of the remaining forests in this country dying or being severely ill; how every place you look there are houses, roads, cars, engines; how every piece of blue sky is crisscrossed with plane trails from the Frankfurt airport; how every path through the "nature's reservoir" I'm living in is littered with empty cans and other trash; how little time my life leaves me to enjoy a moment of silence...

Take the essence of Zen and Buddhism and
... don't panic.

You mean if I wear a set of glasses that go black when something bad happens, I won't be so affected by it?

One thing about 'starving' people: If you drive by tube and such a slug(they 're called 'bum') is coming along begging for mo'money - and is stinking like devils butt with an odeur of alcohol - I beg your pardon, but I don't have much pity.

I don't mean them - all they have to do is to play a bit by the rules, and apply for wellfare.

I mean the people starving to death all over the world - if they're not selling their souls as kid soldiers or prodtitutes. Even the lowliest homeless here in Germany has the chance to live a better life than a kid in Ethopia or in the Favelas of Rio de Janeiro. They have nowhere to go.

Hm, and once again, I recognize a certain writers gift in your sentences. *gg* Have you by any chance attended some writers workshop?

Never. But once, as a teenager, I was dreaming about becoming a writer, a poet even, inspired by Tolkien and his ilk, because I felt this gift being strong in me... why I didn't? Simple: Because chances are you can't make a living of it.

So much for "working for fullfilment". Reality bites. :-\

You mean if I wear a set of glasses that go black when something bad happens, I won't be so affected by it?

aach, you've got it into the wrong throat *gg* I am saying: don't let it take you down. If you 've experienced enough bad things in your life, you come to that point sooner or later - if you are sorta stubborn and fighting. Other way round: the good things and the bad things are the chisels that form your being, your soul, your character. SOmetimes it hurts. Chisels hurt in general, that's their way. *shrugs*

Well, I *know* about environment pollution, I *know* about USA and this Kyoto protocol, and never the less, I experience the world as something beautiful. It's in the small moments, where you watch something, see something or hear a bristling sound (I've got some problems with my ears - that's why I am kinda greedy for good music - just can't get enough), or you do yourself and your partner a treat - nothing is more beautiful for me than the smile of ma petite soleil being happy.

your points about respect ... Oh, I know this phenomenom, it's usual here in vienna too: a certain gruffiness, impoliteness, care-****-for-anyone. You are talking about acting reasonable, polite and joyful. Usually, people act this way, but to my biggest distaste, the poison of TV deprives them of certain abilities in terms of communication. Hours behind that damned goggle-box ain't no good for being a communicative guy. 've experienced this in my own family.

That is the very point where I ask myself: Isn't that what those tales talk about - the grey masses that see the evil but just feel too tired / preoccupied / lazy to do something about it? I know, the alternative would be a call to lay fire to the barricades... :-/

Lets tell it the other way round: let *them* do, what they wanna do and go your own way, like a chamaeleon. Just mind your own business. You don't have to live other people's life.

No respect payed to the construction worker standing on the street trying to organize the traffic around a maneuvering truck in a corner - so he's holding you up, is that grounds (snip)

These smartasses were really cursed morons. Such kind of car drivers always turn up, don't using their brains (which you have to use especially whilst driving). This has not directly to do with respect, but with using the brain, *thinking* and don't block the truck so that those lads can do their business, and afterwards everyone is faster. This is about greed and being a moron or not.

No respect payed to the one stepping back from the tram's doors in the station so others can debarge - is that grounds to deny him a seating by elbowing your way inside even before the last one got out?

It's about being firm in the right moment and Being polite but then snatching the opportunity by its ears ere greedy slipwearing assholes get the seats. I do it very often, blocking just with a little step, blowing myself up a little bit - it is a subtle game, believe me, but they *step back* if you step up firmly and show *there is no way* determinedness. other example:You can't imagine how often there is a crowd before the doors of the tube and they don't intend to let you out. as if they were glued to the holds and grips. a firm 'I wanna disembark, please' helps wonders.

But you are right. In a reasonable grown-up manner, one should let 'em disembark - like you've said - and then embark. That#s how I've been told to do, when i 've been a small stick in the landscape (a kid *lol*).

Sometimes one has to take all these things with a grain of salt, have a laugh at the greedy blindfold morons and give it a jump. Of course I understand this is not always easy, and I too have gruffy days when my ears hurt and the 'Wiener Grantigkeit' is very dominant in me - oy vey.

ad writing: In the age of 15, I've started writing a book. I've finished it 1500 pages later in the year 1996. The style is horrible. then i've started another book. It is unfinished and til now, I try sometimes to write a bit, but it is dormant mainly - cuz I need my creative energy for BlueIllusion *gg*. I didn't become writer for the same reasons like you - one has to earn a living, and being a writer mainly didn't look like a prospering thing to me those days.

Well, computers were my hobby before I 've started writing, so, I canna tell I do a unsatisfying job as application developper. *gg*